Moana 2, the sequel to everybody’s favorite Lin-Manuel Miranda–scored Disney movie (sorry, Encanto), is heading straight for movie theaters today, compelling all families with children aged 4 to 12 to go to the movies over Thanksgiving break. The sequel was originally developed as a Disney+ original series. Then, some exec was like “Hmmm, what if we actually made a bajillion dollars instead.” “It doesn’t feel like a true sequel so much as it feels like a souped-up version of one of the direct-to-video affairs that Disney used to pump out for all of its big releases,” Vulture critic Alison Willmore writes. Not to mention, Miranda isn’t back on the songs; instead, they’re by TikTok’s Bear & Barlow. Still, the real question is not if Moana 2 will be a hit but “How big of a hit will it be?” Below, a the tier system contextualizing the megamillions that Disney is going to pull in.

It got in the water

Moana 2 has a lot going for it over its opening weekend. For one, it’s a five-day weekend, since the movie is opening today, November 27, a Wednesday, instead of on Friday. During its preview day, on Tuesday, November 26, Moana 2 made $13.8 million — the largest ever preview day for Walt Disney Animation and the second biggest for any animated film ever, behind Incredibles 2, which released over the summer, per The Hollywood Reporter. Hitting anywhere around $225 million globally or up to $125 million domestically (Deadline’s pre-release prediction) would make sure it met expectations. The movie hitting expectations at all will put it far out ahead of the first film’s opening weekend, which saw it make $81.1 million, per NBC. It’s easily swimming past that.

It swam around

Given that domestic preview, if Moana 2 scored anywhere past $125 million domestically, then it would be not only a super-smash hit, but it would earn the highest five-day opening weekend for any Disney Animated Studios film ever — beating out 2019’s Frozen II. Given that the original Frozen made $1.2 billion in the box office in comparison to Moana’s $687 million, it would mark a rare triumph of sea princess over ice queen.

It took a raft straight to Te Kā

If Moana 2 makes over $155 million domestically in its first weekend, then not only will it be a smash, but it will beat Pixar’s own Inside Out 2 and have the best opening weekend of any animated movie this year. Now that’s worth singing over.

Related

• Inside Out 2 Flies Past Incredibles 2’s Box-Office Record
• What’s a Girl Gotta Do to Get Some Conflict in Moana 2?
• Did Wicked and Gladiator II Just Trade Places in the Oscar Race?

 We’re making it out of Motunui with this one.