This is the latest edition of the Movies Fantasy League newsletter. The drafting window for this season has closed, but you can still sign up to get the newsletter, which provides a weekly recap of box-office performance, awards nominations, and critical chatter on all the buzziest movies.

As hard as Paramount, Universal, and fandoms at large tried to turn Wicked and Gladiator II’s shared opening weekend into a Barbenheimer-esque event, there was no denying that these two titles did not mash up nearly as well. As a portmanteau, Glicked is both confusing (one imagines it’s meant to rhyme with wicked, but it sure looks like it rhymes with clicked) and unappealing. Glicked sounds like something junior-high boys do with spitballs.

Anyway, despite the imperfect marketing, opening weekend for both films was a smashing success, one that augurs good fortune going forward. But just how smashing was that success, and which of the two films was the better bargain? That’s where it gets interesting.

Box Office: What Is This Feeling?

Triumph! Unadulterated triumph! That’s what Wicked is feeling after landing just north of $114 million for the weekend. That figure earned a number of box-office distinctions such as best opening weekend for a movie based on a Broadway show (Les Mis, which opened to $103 million in 2012, was the only real competition), best 2024 opening weekend among non-sequels (behind Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2), and third-biggest opening weekend of 2024 (also behind D&W and IO2).

Gladiator II didn’t have nearly as good a weekend, but a $55 million opening for a 2.5-hour R-rated sequel to a 24-year-old movie that doesn’t feature the original’s star is pretty great. And with Moana 2 likely eating into more of the Wicked audience than the Gladiator audience next weekend, there’s a chance those numbers stay strong through the holidays.

While impressive, these box-office totals for Wicked and Gladiator II were not unexpected. Wicked has been a top priority for Universal all year — remember how ubiquitous it was during NBC’s Summer Olympics coverage? Meanwhile, Gladiator II has had everybody abuzz since those first shots of Denzel Washington wearing a million rings. But what’s interesting is that the roles these two movies may end up playing this awards season seem to be the opposite of what we (or at least I, while planning this MFL season) expected.

When roster selection kicked off in September, Gladiator II was the top-dollar buy at $40, while Wicked was just $20. This reflected some assumptions on our part. One was that both of these movies had lucrative financial futures ahead of them, so they would all but guarantee some level of good return on your investment. The other assumption was that while Wicked might contend for craft awards (costumes! Production design!), Gladiator II was the real contender of the pair.

Now, in the wake of opening weekend — and following a perusal of the reviews and reactions — I see we may have had it backward: Wicked made so much more money at the box office, and the early awards conversation is tilting in its direction. Ariana Grande is, depending on whom you talk to, either a lock for a Best Supporting Actress nomination or a lock to win Best Supporting Actress (I’d advise pumping the brakes on all that “lock” talk, but then again I’m the dummy who priced this movie the same as Joker: Folie à Deux). I’d give Wicked great odds to land nominations in costume, production design, sound, and hair/makeup, though maybe not cinematography, since even people who like the movie aren’t universally onboard with how it’s lit. Meanwhile, Cynthia Erivo is in the mix for Best Actress (a Golden Globe nomination is a nearcertainty), and a Best Picture nomination is very much on the table. I don’t expect many precursor lineups to pass by without giving Wicked some kind of recognition.

On the flip side, while Denzel Washington is getting Best Supporting Actor buzz for Gladiator, the reviews for the film have been all over the place, from genuine positivity to bemused hand-waving to general annoyance. What once looked like a strong case for Best Picture, Best Director, and a bunch of craft awards now looks far shakier.

As with many things in the awards race, this is all a matter of perception. Wicked’s reviews are better than people expected, while Gladiator’s are worse. Wicked has to surpass only recent movie musicals that underwhelmed (Spielberg’s West Side Story, last year’s The Color Purple, Chu’s own In the Heights), while Gladiator II has to surpass its predecessor, a Best Picture winner whose reputation has only grown over the past two and a half decades.

In other words, Wicked is currently winning the narrative war, and winning the narrative war is how you end up winning awards. For now, at least, if you shelled out $40 for Gladiator II, it’s looking like you may have overpaid. For what it’s worth: I am one of you. And I’m kicking myself for not spending $20 on Wicked instead.

Box Office, Part II: 25 Is the New 50

One of my favorite MFL scoring adjustments we made this year was to change the way box-office performance bonuses are allocated. Now, instead of waiting for a movie to hit $50 million to get a bonus, those points start kicking in at $25 million. This turned out to be significant news for a few movies this week.

Perhaps the most unheralded $25 million movie in America right now is The Best Christmas Pageant Ever. Based on Barbara Robinson’s 1972 children’s novel about a family of unruly poor kids who take over the local Christmas pageant, the Lionsgate film has topped $25 million in just three weeks. For a movie that went off the board at $2, it’s proving to be a great value.

Elsewhere, Conclave moved north of $25 million last week, and Heretic is about to do the same. Both of these movies have some degree of awards points ahead of them. (Conclave is a serious contender for Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting performances, while Hugh Grant will very possibly get a Golden Globe nomination for Heretic, since it’s been submitted as a Comedy.)

Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain ($4 million) and Sean Baker’s Anora ($12 million) continue to add a million here, a million there, week by week. These movies are playing the very long game when it comes to awards season, so if you drafted them, be patient.

Coming This Week

Moana 2 opens on Wednesday, kicking off what Disney hopes will be a lucrative Thanksgiving weekend. Luca Guadagnino’s Queer also opens in limited release for those lucky souls in big cities who really want a break from their families.

Questions? Feedback? Can’t find your team or mini-league on the leaderboard? Drop us a line at moviesleague@vulture.com.

 Winning the narrative war is how you end up winning awards.